[Debate] State Department quietly warning region on Syrian WMDs

[Riaz K Tayob]

  Exclusive: State Department quietly warning region on Syrian WMDs
  <http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/02/24/exclusive_state_department_quietly_warning_region_on_syrian_wmds>


    Posted ByJosh Rogin
    <http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/blog/11505>Friday, February 24,
    2012 - 3:03 PMShare <http://www.addthis.com/bookmark.php?v=20>

The State Department has begun coordinating with Syria's neighbors to 
prepare for the handling of President*Bashar al-Assad's*extensive 
weapons of mass destruction if and when his regime collapses,/The 
Cable/has learned.

This week, the State Department sent a diplomatic demarche to Syria's 
neighbors Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia, warning them about 
the possibility of Syria's WMDs crossing their borders and offering U.S. 
government help in dealing with the problem, three Obama administration 
officials confirmed to/The Cable/. For concerned parties both inside and 
outside the U.S. government, the demarche signifies that the United 
States is increasingly developing plans to deal with the dangers of a 
post-Assad Syria -- while simultaneously highlighting the lack of 
planning for how to directly bring about Assad's downfall.

Syria isbelieved to have 
<http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/080602_syrianwmd.pdf>a 
substantial chemical weapons program, which includes mustard gas and 
sophisticated nerve agents, such as sarin gas, as well as biological 
weapons. Syria has also refused IAEA requests to make available 
facilities that were part of its nuclear weapons program and may still 
be in operation.

The State Department declined to provide access to any officials to 
discuss the private diplomatic communication on the record, such as the 
author of the demarche Assistant Secretary of State for International 
Security and Nonproliferation*Tom Countryman* 
<http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/biog/174947.htm>. In ameeting with 
reporters 
<http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/02/15/state_dept_russia_and_iran_still_arming_bashar_al_assad>earlier 
this year, Countryman expressed confidence that the United States knows 
where Syria's WMD stockpiles are, but warned that they could become a 
very serious security issue for Syria and the region going forward.

"We have ideas as to the quantity and we have ideas as to where they 
are," Countryman said. "We wish some of the neighbors of Syria to be on 
the lookout... When you get a change of regime in Syria, it matters what 
are the conditions -- chaotic or orderly."

Today, in response to inquiries from/The Cable/, a State Department 
official offered the following statement:

"The U.S. and our allies are monitoring Syria's chemical weapons 
stockpile. These weapons' presence in Syria undermines peace and 
security in the Middle East, and we have long called on the Syrian 
government to destroy its chemicals weapons arsenal and join the 
Chemical Weapons Convention," the State Department official said. "We 
believe Syria's chemical weapons stockpile remains under Syrian 
government control, and we will continue to work closely with 
like-minded countries to prevent proliferation of Syria's chemical 
weapons program."

The demarche made four specific points, according to other U.S. 
officials who offered a fuller account to/The Cable/. It communicated 
the U.S. government's recognition that there is a highly active chemical 
warfare program in Syria, which is complemented by ballistic-missile 
delivery capability. It further emphasized that that any potential 
political transition in Syria could raise serious questions about the 
regime's control over proliferation-sensitive material.

Third, the State Department wanted Syria's neighbors to know that should 
the Assad regime fall, the security of its WMD stockpile -- as well as 
its control over conventional weapons like MANPADS (shoulder-fired 
rocket launchers) -- could come into question and could pose a serious 
threat to regional security. Lastly, the demarche emphasized that the 
U.S. government stands ready to support neighboring countries to provide 
border-related security cooperation.

"It's essentially a recognition of the danger to the regional and 
international community of the stockpiles that the regime possesses and 
the importance of working with countries, given the potential fall of 
the regime, to prevent the proliferation of these very sensitive weapons 
outside of Syria's border," one administration official said. "It's an 
exponentially more dangerous program than Libya. We are talking about 
legitimate WMDs here -- this isn't Iraq. The administration is really 
concerned about loose WMDs. It's one of the few things you could put on 
the agenda and do something about without planning the fall of the regime."

The administration is also working closely with the Jordanians on the 
issue. A Jordanian military delegationwas at the Pentagon 
<http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=67301>Thursday to meet 
with Defense Secretary*Leon Panetta*.

In addition to the danger of proliferation, there is a concern that 
Assad could actually use his WMDs if his situation becomes desperate.

"The WMD program is in play now, and that's important because it 
highlights the innate danger that the existence of this regime poses to 
U.S. security and regional interests," the administration official said. 
"[The demarche] puts Syria's neighbors on notice and it reflects the 
recognition that a dangerous Assad regime is willing to do anything to 
save its own skin. If they are willing to kill the country to save the 
regime, they might be willing to do a great deal more damage throughout 
the region."

Some officials inside and outside the administration see the WMD 
activity as helpful, but lament that such a high degree of planning is 
not taking place on the issue of how to precipitate the downfall of the 
Assad regime as quickly and as safely as possible.

Over 70 countries met in Tunis today to develop a unified message on the 
transition of power in Syria and urge the Assad regime toallow 
humanitarian access 
<http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/02/23/friends_of_syria_meeting_will_be_about_humanitarian_access>. 
The Saudi delegation actually walked out of the meeting, complaining of 
"inactivity" and urging the international community to arm the Syrian 
opposition.

The Obama administration has consistently rejected calls by the Syrian 
National Council and others to prepare for a military intervention in 
Syria and no real strategy exists internally to force Assad from power, 
another administration official said.

"Our strategic calculus can't be solely about what comes after Assad 
without taking a hard look at how to bring about Assad's downfall as 
safely as possible," said this official. "The reality is, at some point, 
there will be a recognition you can't plan for a post-Assad scenario 
without planning how to shape the downfall itself. You can't separate 
the two."

Concern about a gap in planning for how to oust the Assad regime is 
shared by some in Congress, including Sens.*John McCain*(R-AZ),*Joe 
Lieberman*(I-CT), and*Lindsey Graham*(R-SC), who issued a statement 
today urging the administration to start directly aiding the Syrian 
rebels and protecting Syrian civilians.

"Unfortunately, speeches and meetings by themselves will do nothing to 
stop the unacceptable slaughter in Syria, which is growing worse by the 
day," the senators said. "We remain deeply concerned that our 
international diplomacy risks becoming divorced from the reality on the 
ground in Syria, which is now an armed conflict between Assad's forces 
and the people of Syria who are struggling to defend themselves against 
indiscriminate attacks."

In her prepared remarks in Tunis, Secretary of State*Hillary 
Clinton*said she supported more sanctions on the Assad regime but she 
declined to endorse any direct help to the Syrian opposition without the 
consent of the Syrian government, saying only,"We all need to look hard 
at what more we can d


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