[Debate] (Fwd) Class analysis of ANC (BDay)

[Patrick Bond]

(Not saying they have it right because the first clause is dumb, but 
it's interesting when put in such stark terms: "The governing alliance 
is now sandwiched between a left-leaning workerist faction that is 
blocking the structural reforms needed to grow the economy and create 
employment, and a socially conservative nationalist grouping that is 
intent on benefiting from black economic empowerment and the 
redistribution of wealth. Sooner or later the mainly young, poor and 
unemployed masses are going to realise that, although both factions 
claim to represent them, neither actually cares a jot.")

Business Day



  EDITORIAL: ANC disunity may give Malema a gap


Sooner or later the mainly young, poor and unemployed masses are going 
to realise that, although the left-leaning workerist faction and the 
socially conservative nationalist grouping claim to represent them, 
neither actually cares a jot

Published:2012/04/19 08:13:30 AM

THE divisions that have emerged in the African National Congress (ANC) 
Youth League in the wake of Julius Malema's summary suspension being 
upheld on appeal were predictable enough. They also explain why those 
who remain loyal to him are so keen to hold an urgent national general 
council meeting.

They are acutely aware that if sentiment within the league's structures 
swings much further against them it will be extremely difficult to stem 
the tide now that they do not have the authority and resources of the 
party behind them.

Mr Malema desperately needs to secure a vote of confidence from the 
general council but he has probably left it too late. His influence over 
the delegates who would attend as representatives of their branches is 
waning rapidly as the consequences of the league going for broke and 
defying the ANC by refusing to accept its authority start to sink in.

As Mr Malema's nemesis, PresidentJacob Zuma, is fond of pointing out, it 
is cold outside the party's embrace. The fate of ANC members who left in 
disgust over its treatment of former presidentThabo Mbekito form the 
Congress of the People is a constant reminder of this fact.

Mr Malema and the handful of other youth leaders who were disciplined 
with him may have little left to lose, but that is not true of the 
league as a whole.

It accounts for about a third of the ANC's membership, so should in 
theory have considerable influence within the party as long as it 
remains united. But it is doubtful that saving Mr Malema's skin is cause 
enough to ensure unity, especially since the credibility of the process 
that saw him elected was questionable in the first place. There is no 
other obvious issue of principle that could fulfil that role.

The league has been so used and abused in support of Mr Malema's 
personal agenda that it is doubtful that even an issue such as the 
nationalisation of the mines will be supported with much enthusiasm now 
that he is officially out of the picture and unable to bully or buy the 
support he needs to get his way. The same applies to his feud with Mr 
Zuma --- now that the stakes are clear, and so high, it is unlikely most 
league members will see much reason to keep pursuing it.

The ANC has won this battle of wills, even if Mr Malema somehow manages 
to persuade the general council that it is in its and the league's best 
interests to bite the hand that feeds them. The most likely scenario 
will see someone stepping up to fill the leadership vacuum and prevent a 
complete breakdown of relations with the ANC, which has the power to 
disband the league if it comes to that.

League deputy president Ronald Lamola is the most obvious candidate for 
this role.

But if he is unable to overcome his loyalty to Mr Malema, there will be 
no shortage of candidates once the impotence of those who find 
themselves in the political wilderness becomes clear. Mr Malema is about 
to discover that friends are indeed few when times are hard, especially 
when they were not really your friends in the first place.

But this is a pyrrhic victory for Mr Zuma and the ANC. The organisation 
has clearly been weakened by the division Mr Malema has caused and Mr 
Zuma's need to shore up his support base ahead of the party's December 
elective conference means he has a continual need to placate its union 
allies, which is making effective governance nigh on impossible.

The governing alliance is now sandwiched between a left-leaning 
workerist faction that is blocking the structural reforms needed to grow 
the economy and create employment, and a socially conservative 
nationalist grouping that is intent on benefiting from black economic 
empowerment and the redistribution of wealth. Sooner or later the mainly 
young, poor and unemployed masses are going to realise that, although 
both factions claim to represent them, neither actually cares a jot. 
That may be the gap Mr Malema is looking for.

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: http://lists.fahamu.org/pipermail/debate-list/attachments/20120421/f4a18a7e/attachment-0001.htm