[DEBATE] : ANC Lives, ANC Leads

[David Everatt]

Remember 1999 and 2004, COSATU very strongly reminded the ANC that 
COSATU's stewards and members had been in the forefront of election 
campaigning and mobilising  the ANC vote; their reward, of course, was 
either to get ignored or insulted by Mbeki. But this time round things 
are very different. Politically, the impact of COPE was to force ANC 
voters to declare allegiances far earlier than normal (polls showed 
'undecided'/'don't know'/'won't say' etc. at less than half of what they 
had been at the same stage in 2003/4, as soon as COPE appeared - down 
from nearly a fifth of voters to less than 1 in 10; which made 
campaigning, advertising, targeting etc. far easier). COPE/Mbeki 
recall/reactions to Zuma/etc. all made people take sides before anyone 
started campaigning. COPE as a party added a sense of threat (or 
challenge) and thus /self-mobilised/ ANC voters far earlier than normal 
and long before the campaign machinery swung into action. An obvious 
result is that this is the first election since 1994 where COSATU can't 
say it was largely thanks to their hard work (which it usually is, given 
the state of ANC branches). That they worked damn hard isn't in 
question; but their mobilisation was secondary, this time, to what the 
ANC pulled off itself and the fertile political consciousness on the 
ground, fuelled by COPE, the recall of Mbeki, etc.; and, one must admit, 
a barn-stormer of a campaign by the ANC. Which means the ANC is 
(arguably) less indebted to COSATU for the result than in previous 
elections; yet Zuma himself is (arguably) indebted in ways Mbeki never 
was. Should make for interesting times ahead.




___________________ 

David Everatt 

Johannesburg


>