[DEBATE] : (Fwd) Prediction of Zim GNU collapse

[Patrick Bond]

(Seems like a way way exaggerated opening sentence.)

Zimbabwe Unity Government Faces Collapse
Mxolisi Ncube | Bio | 17 Apr 2009
World Politics Review

JOHANNESBURG, South Africa -- Zimbabwe's national unity government faces 
imminent collapse, due to its failure to get critical financial aid from 
the international community. Experts have now warned that the government 
might soon fail to pay its workers, with the potential for serious civil 
unrest as a result.

Zimbabwe needs at least $8.5 billion in financial aid in order to 
reconstruct its economy. But its appeals have so far drawn blanks due to 
donors' skepticism over President Robert Mugabe's sincerity in working 
with the opposition.

Even the regional Southern African Development Community (SADC) -- which 
brokered the accord establishing the unity government and remains its 
custodian -- has so far failed to produce assistance, despite its 
approval last month of Zimbabwe's reconstruction plan.

South Africa's foreign affairs minister, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, said on 
Monday that the SADC was lobbying the U.S. and EU to lift their 
sanctions on Zimbabwe, while also canvassing for economic support. 
However, that mission might fail if Mugabe -- whose populist policies 
and mismanagement of resources are largely blamed for destroying one of 
Africa's erstwhile model economies -- does not change his ruling tactics.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), which sent a fact-finding team to 
the former British colony two weeks ago, said that Zimbabwe would not 
receive fresh funding before it clears its burgeoning arrears. Those 
date back to February 2001, and stood at $137.4 million last month.

"Assistance from the IMF will depend on establishing a track record of 
sound policy implementation, donor support and a resolution of overdue 
financial obligations to official creditors, including the IMF," the 
fund said in a statement last week.

The IMF cut balance-of-payments support to Zimbabwe in 1999, after 
differences with Mugabe over fiscal policy and other governance issues. 
Zimbabwe is also in arrears of $656 million and $449.5 million to the 
World Bank and the African Development Bank, respectively.

Western donors have demanded the creation of a democratically elected 
government and bold economic reforms -- including reversing 
nationalisation policies -- before they make financial commitments. They 
also want guarantees of human rights, the release of all political 
prisoners, the restoration of press freedom and an immediate end to 
Mugabe's violent land seizures.

However, Mugabe, who still remains fully in charge of state security 
organs, has so far refused to comply. More than 10 activists from Prime 
Minister Morgan Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party 
are still missing, after being abducted late last year. The state denies 
any knowledge of their whereabouts.

The few that were released from custody -- including Roy Bennet, the 
MDC's nominee for deputy minister of agriculture -- are still facing 
terrorism charges. MDC officials claim the charges have been trumped up 
to stifle opposition, but Mugabe has refused to drop them.

Mugabe's supporters have also launched a new wave of farm invasions 
against the few remaining white farmers in the country. The Commercial 
Farmers Union (CFU) reported that more than 100 farms belonging to its 
members have been impacted during the past few weeks.

"Mugabe seems to be determined to see the remaining few white farmers 
leave the country," said a CFU spokesman Tuesday. "Police are also 
wantonly arresting our members for trying to resist the evictions, while 
some of them have been assaulted, detained, or had their property 
destroyed."

Agriculture Minister Hebert Murerwa dismissed the reports as false. But 
several analysts have blamed the invasions on the hidden hand of Zanu-PF 
hardliners who are opposed to the government of national unity. Among 
the hardline Mugabe loyalists are security chiefs who in the past have 
vowed never to salute Tsvangirai, even if he were to become president of 
the country and commander-in-chief of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces (ZDF).

The MDC has complained about the farm seizures, which it warns will 
undermine the unity government and block the desperately needed 
financial assistance. "This is a threat to the rule of law, to decency, 
to hope and to economic recovery," said party spokesman, Nelson Chamisa. 
"The farm disturbances and arrests of farmers are not only a threat to 
food security, but to the goodwill that the international community had 
started to extend to the inclusive government."

However, Mugabe told his Zanu-PF party's central committee last 
Wednesday that the land seizures would continue despite the MDC's 
objections, demonstrating Mugabe's executive powers and the opposition's 
lack of influence in the new government.


Mxolisi Ncube is an exiled Zimbabwean freelance journalist based in 
Johannesburg, covering politics and human rights. He used to report for 
the Zimbabwean, a privately owned weekly newspaper, and various 
political Web sites both locally and abroad, until fleeing government 
persecution in August.