[DEBATE] : Re: DEBATE : Re: Tony Hawkins: Zim and neoliberal restructuring

[Patrick Bond]

Stefan Andreasson wrote:
> Patrick:
>
> A couple of questions. I certainly buy the argument, by and large, of
> your 1998 book. But isn't it possible to draw too much, in terms of
> conclusions about economic success, from the somewhat unique post-UDI
> decade? Presumably ISI has produced good growth rates over the short
> term in several instances, but sustaining it over the long terms has
> generally been difficult?
>   
Yes, thanks to overaccumulation of ISI-luxury goods, which was a real 
problem in Rhodesia given the limited size of the white market. But the 
problem also came from overaccumulation in the capital goods sector too.

But the point is, there's lots more manufacturing ISI that can get going 
in post-Mugabe Zimbabwe, especially aimed at basic needs goods, which 
are currently dominated by inexpensive Asian imports.

> Secondly, as for the platinum it is certainly the case that it is now
> a major asset (not accounting for the recent drop, I think prices
> quadrupled over the last few years). But when did it actually become a
> major source of mining revenue. Presumably it would have been less
> important and exploited before the huge drive to put catalysators in
> cars?
>   

True. A few years ago, though, Zimplats at Hartley couldn't manage a 
profit and one of the Ozzie producers sold their investment of many 
US$10s of millions for US$1. I can't remember the details but I think 
Richard Saunders' posts at AfricaFiles has this info.