[DEBATE] : Wild speculations about global economy
bstefan at gmail.com
Sat Oct 11 14:19:48 BST 2008
A good time to remember Warren Buffett's investment advice: to be
greedy when markets are fearful, and fearful when markets are greedy.
I can't see why, in the end, it won't hold true now as in the past.
I am simply amazed at the ENORMOUS volume of wild speculation in the
media about the current crash. It is as if people write simply for the
sake of writing: endless streams of words, one op-ed page feeding off
the next. The wilder the speculations, the more convinced their
authors are that they must, "inevitably", come true. I think it will
be some time before we have a chance of actually learning anything
from this rather remarkable series of events. Right now it is just
everyone opining with no sense of reflection.
We have enjoyed an enormous speculative cycle, fed by increasingly
risky trading in non-tangible assets. This has produced a much worse
than usual market correction (near failure in some sectors, which
governments eventually will sort out because they too - ultimately -
believe in the markets).
While people only see stocks collapsing in recent months, they forget
having cashed in on in some cases tripe-digit percentage returns on
some stocks and funds in recent years. In time markets return to
normal, likely based on a somewhat different regulatory framework. A
generation or two down the line it is "business as usual", people
recall only vaguely past crashes (1929, 2008) - until the next major
correction and wild prognostications about "the end of world
That is my prediction anyhow, and I will put money on it!
> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> From: Patrick Bond <pbond at mail.ngo.za>
> To: debate: SA discussion list <debate at debate.kabissa.org>
> Date: Fri, 10 Oct 2008 23:56:16 +0200
> Subject: [DEBATE] : (Fwd) SA's economic crash: 40% stock wipeout since May and more to fall
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