[DEBATE] : (Fwd) Weizmann Hamilton on new 'Socialist Front'

[Patrick Bond]

(Wishful thinking department, I regret. But lots of good recapping here.)

Africa’s oldest liberation movement headed for split

As Mbeki is dismissed by ANC as president of SA...

By Weizmann Hamilton 30 September 2008

In the early hours of Saturday morning 20th September, 2008, after 14
hours of bitter debate, the ruling African National Congress National
Executive Committee resolved to “recall” South African president, Thabo
Mbeki in the most momentous event since the fall of apartheid. Three
days later, Mbeki announced his resignation as president of the country
on national television -- the reign of the ANC’s crown prince, protégé
of and personally groomed by the late Oliver Tambo – had come to an
inglorious end.

That he was subjected to the indignity of not being allowed to serve out
the remainder of the little more than six months left of his term, is a
measure of the extent to which the admiration for him had turned into a
venomous hatred. One of the ANC’s most revered leaders has been reduced
to one of its most reviled, achieving the dubious distinction of
becoming the first sitting president in the post-apartheid era to be
removed from office in what is in effect a political, albeit not a
legal, impeachment.

The ANC NEC decision, described by Moeletsi Mbeki, the ex-president’s
brother and political commentator known for his criticism of the
government’s policies, as a “recipe for civil war”, has plunged the
African continent’s oldest liberation movement into its most serious
crisis since its founding in 1912. With the front page of the Sowetan
newspaper proclaiming “ANC Split Looms”, ANC deputy president, Kgalema
Motlanthe was sworn in as caretaker president of SA on Thursday 25th
September to serve until the next election in April 2009.

Mbeki’s resignation was followed by the mass resignation -- in
solidarity with the president that had appointed them, and, in the
famous words of Trevor Manuel “at whose pleasure” they served -- of just
under half the cabinet including the deputy president, 10 ministers and
3 deputies. The announcement of the resignation of Finance Minister,
Trevor Manuel, the darling of big business, precipitated a decline of
over 2% in the value of the currency and shares on the Johannesburg
Securities Exchange plummeted by R50 billion. However, in the end all
but six heeded the Zuma leadership’s appeal to remain in their posts.

ANC divisions deepen
The split in the ANC has penetrated all state institutions – the police,
army, judiciary and the state broadcaster. It has been three years in
the making, sparked by Mbeki’s June 2005 dismissal of Jacob Zuma as the
country’s deputy president. Mbeki took this action following the
conviction of Zuma’s financial adviser Schabir Shaik, now serving a
15-year sentence, on fraud and corruption charges and paying bribes to Zuma.

Controversially, the National Prosecuting Authority had decided not to
charge Zuma. Explaining this decision then NPA head, Bulelani Ngcuka,
justified it with the legally absurd statement that whilst there was a
prima facie case against Zuma, the NPA was not confident of a successful
prosecution and would not charge him. This left Zuma in a legal no man’s
land – accused of corruption and effectively on trial by proxy in and
tainted by Shaik’s case, without the opportunity of clearing his name.

This set the scene for a rebellion of the ANC rank-and-file against
Mbeki later that month at the ANC National General Council (NGC) – the
highest decision making body in between conferences. The president of
the ANC and the country was subjected, in the words of the Star
newspaper, to “Four Days of Hell” in his first public humiliation by his
own party. Mbeki was accused of being the architect of the obstacles
erected in the path of Zuma’s presidential ambitions.

However, with the power to appoint members of cabinet vested in the
hands of the president, the NGC was limited to the symbolic act of
restoring to Zuma only his party position as deputy president and his
right to speak on behalf of the ANC. It was only after this that the NPA
brought charges against Zuma obtaining evidence by staging armed raids
on his homes and offices leading to a near shoot-out with his
bodyguards. After the judge threw out the first set of charges in 2006,
the NPA chose to serve Zuma with fresh vastly expanded charges on
December 28th 2007, days after Zuma’s historic victory in Polokwane. In
a cruel and ironic twist of history, Mbeki has now been forced out of
office by an ANC headed by the very person he dismissed in 2005.

The ANC NEC’s decision, however, represents no more than the coup de
grace, the final fatal stroke, against Mbeki’s political career in the
ANC following his humiliation at the ANC’s conference in December 2007
in Polokwane, Limpopo. Since suffering a disastrous defeat in his
attempt to secure a third term as ANC president, Mbeki has been a lame
duck president sulking in Tuynhuis in the Union Buildings. Seemingly
oblivious of the fact that his presidency was discredited, Mbeki
continued to defy the new Zuma leadership. He failed to attend the ANC’s
birthday celebrations in January, ignored the objections of the alliance
partners by directly interfering in the nomination of SABC board members
and appointing it regardless and stayed away from the first working
committee and NEC meetings of the new ANC regime.

He contrived to provide further ammunition for the finding that he had
interfered in state institutions. He suspended the National Director of
Public Prosecutions, Vusi Pikoli, for issuing an arrest warrant for the
National Commissioner of Police, Jackie Selebi, his ally, on charges of
corruption and racketeering. Selebi had openly flaunted his friendship
with notorious gangster Glen Agliotti, a suspect in the murder of mining
magnate Brett Kebble – a generous ANC benefactor who donated millions to
the organisation and individual members. Mbeki went so far as to
institute a commission of inquiry to determine Pikoli’s fitness to hold
office.

Speculation about the possibility of a split and the formation of a new
party led by the former Defence Minister, Mosiua Lekota and his deputy
Mluleki George is now widespread. Reports in the Sowetan (25/09/08)
about the formation of an “ANC Activist Consultative Forum” by Mbeki
supporters in Limpopo represents the establishment of a pre-party
formation confirming reports that preparations for the launch of a new
party are well advanced. Media reports that names under consideration
for the new party include “United Democratic Front” – the organisation
launched in the 1980s that acted as a front for the ANC before it was
unbanned, and “ANC of South Africa” with a logo similar to the ANC’s –
reflect the extent to which the Mbeki faction considers the Zuma faction
as alien to what they believe the ANC stands for and themselves as the
torch bearers of the true traditions of the ANC. This could lead,
ironically, to the emergence of a “Herstigte” (Reestablished) ANC in a
repeat of the history of the Nationalist Party (NP) the party of
apartheid which has been ingested by the ANC which experienced a
break-away that named itself the “Herstigte” NP.

Whilst Mbeki’s mother has publicly expressed support for a new party,
other prominent ANC figures thought to be involved including former
Gauteng Premier and Cosatu general secretary, Mbhazima Shilowa, former
Intelligence Minister Ronnie Kasrils and former Education Minister Kader
Asmal, have so far denied involvement.

With reports of several meetings in a number of provinces, the launch of
the new party seems now only a matter of time and timing – before or
after the 2009 elections? The Mbeki faction may have been defeated at
Polokwane. But with 40% of the vote, they represent a substantial
minority and a viable basis for a party to mount a credible electoral
challenge. They will be encouraged by opinion polls showing a
significant level of support, albeit not a majority at this stage. Such
an initiative appears to have an appeal particularly amongst minorities
at present.

A damning judgment
Mbeki’s final humiliation by an organisation he has served for 52 years,
was precipitated by Zuma’s successful application to the high court to
have the charges brought against him in December 2007 set aside on a
technicality. The National Prosecuting Authority had served fresh
charges against Zuma after a judge had quashed them in 2006, ruling that
the NPA’s request for a further postponement after an investigation that
began in 2002 was unreasonable.

In a damning judgment, Judge Nicholson (a prominent former human rights
lawyer who, in a separate matter, had ruled that the government should
provide anti-retroviral drugs for HIV-positive prisoners) found that
Zuma’s rights to make representation to the NPA if fresh charges are
brought against him, had been violated. Ruling the procedure followed as
illegal, he set aside the charges. Although the judge emphasised that
his ruling was on a procedural technicality and had no bearing on Zuma’s
guilt or innocence, it was his finding on a subsidiary issue that
completely overshadowed the main application and set into a motion a
series of events that ended in Mbeki’s removal as head of state.

The NPA had lodged a counter-application opposing Zuma’s contention in
his supporting arguments that he was the victim of a political
conspiracy to prevent him from becoming the country’s president. The NPA
requested the judge to strike out those allegations as “vexacious,
scandalous and irrelevant.” This entirely unnecessary and arrogant
response to Zuma’ application obliged the judge to go beyond Zuma’s
claim about the right to be heard before being charged again. Had the
judge found for Zuma on that narrow issue, the NPA would simply have
gone through the motion of consulting Zuma before reinstating the
charges. By demanding that the judge dismiss Zuma’s allegations, the NPA
compelled the judge to consider the merits of Zuma’s claim of a
political plot.

The judge made a finding that had the effect of altering the course of
the country’s history. His verdict caught virtually the entire legal
fraternity, opposition parties and the media – which had been united in
their condemnation of Zuma for pursuing every possible legal avenue
available to fight the charges against him and ridiculing his conspiracy
claims – by complete surprise. Prior to Nicholson’s judgment, Zuma had
lost every attempt to thwart his prosecution, including,
controversially, his application to have evidence the NPA obtained from
raids on his lawyer’s offices ruled inadmissible on the basis of the
principle of lawyer-client confidentiality.

This was his first victory and it reverberated across the country like
an earthquake. The judge found not only that Zuma’s rights to be heard
before being recharged had been violated. Most significantly he ruled
that there was merit in Zuma’s claims about a political conspiracy.
Moreover he found that the government, specifically the present and
former ministers of justice, Penuel Maduna and Bridgette Mabandla
respectively, and, most damagingly, Mbeki himself, had manipulated the
NPA. He recommended that steps be taken to reinforce the independence of
institutions of the criminal justice system like the NPA, including the
prosecution of offenders under legislation that carries a maximum
sentence of 10 years imprisonment.

In the run-up to the court case, a climate of near-hysteria had been
generated by the Zuma faction as they escalated the campaign to have the
case against him dropped. The new pro-Zuma ANC leadership under
secretary general Gwede Mantashe, and their allies in the ANC Youth
League led by president Julius Malema, Congress of SA Trade Union’s
(Cosatu) general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi and SA Communist Party
general secretary Blade Ndzimande had raised the political temperature
by describing the charges against Zuma as a political persecution rather
than a legal prosecution.

Mantashe denounced the judiciary as “counter-revolutionary”. Weighing in
with his own histrionics, Malema accused the judges of behaving like
drunks at a shebeen. Supported by Cosatu’s Vavi, Malema declared himself
willing to “kill for Zuma”. The SACP’s Blade Ndzimande warned that
persisting with the case was not in the “national interest” and would
bring the country “to the brink.” They mobilised protesters to lobby
outside the court during the proceedings, beginning with a “night vigil”
the evening before. The SA Democratic Teachers Union, a Cosatu
affiliate, called for a national stay away should the case against Zuma
proceed. The Cosatu and SACP leadership used the general strike against
food and electricity price rises to campaign for Zuma.

For the Zuma faction, the judgment came as a huge relief. Declaring that
their faith in the integrity of the judges had been restored, they
became born-again worshippers of the notion of the “independence of the
judiciary” and “the rule of law”. They embraced the judgment, portraying
it as a vindication of the claims Zuma has made all along. With the ANC
Youth League in the forefront, calls for Mbeki’s removal for
manipulating state institutions and abuse of power grew louder. Zuma,
anxious to avoid being seen as vengeful and attempting to portray
himself as a unifier, initially called for Mbeki to be allowed to finish
his term. In his conciliatory public appeal, he advised the would-be
impeachers it was a waste of energy to “beat a dead snake.”

Zuma’s conciliatory gesture might have been supported but for the
decision of the NPA to appeal the judgment. Whatever the legal merits,
the act of lodging the appeal had the effect of a match being thrown
onto a lake of fuel. It was seen by the Zuma faction as a political
provocation -- an attempt by the NPA to snatch defeat from the jaws of
the Zuma faction’s victory over Mbeki. It was interpreted as further
confirmation of a conspiracy at work with the NPA believed to have
lodged the appeal if not on Mbeki’s instruction, then on his behalf. The
subsequent decision by cabinet and Mbeki himself to apply to join the
appeal after his resignation merely confirmed the suspicion. All that
was left was to decide on the best procedure to secure Mbeki’s eviction
from the Union Buildings.

Ironically Mbeki, who dismissed Zuma after Schabir Shaik’s conviction on
the basis of inferences drawn by the judge about their relationship, now
condemns the inferences drawn by the judge against him in this case as
“vexacious and prejudicial” in a case he has referred directly to the
Constitutional Court – the highest in the country.

Judge Nicholson’s inferences about the “baleful influence” of the
government in NPA decisions, in the words of Business Day political
editor Karima Brown, merely “drew the lines between the dots” of events
that had already formed a clearly discernible picture. Mbeki had
ascended to power and attempted to keep all possible rivals at bay
through a ruthless manipulation of the party apparatus and state
institutions bringing into existence “the coalition of the wounded” that
toppled him.

Mbeki’s ascendancy to the deputy presidency following the assassination
of the chief of staff of the ANC’s military wing, Umkhonto we Sizwe, the
highly popular Chris Hani, gave rise to the rumour, yet to be laid to
rest, that he had a hand in his death. Mbeki also forced the former
Minister Safety and Security, Steve Tshwete to conduct an investigation
into the completely fantastic allegations that Cyril Ramaphosa,
Mandela’s preferred choice as his successor, as well as former ANC
Gauteng provincial premier Tokyo Sexwale and Matthews Phosa, former
Mpumalanga premier and now ANC national treasurer – all of whom
harboured ambitions to succeed Mandela -- had plotted to assassinate
him. When no evidence was uncovered Mbeki referred all queries to
Tshwete. Intolerant of dissent, aloof and arrogant, he marginalised
those who dissented from his views.

Mbeki’s Genocidal Crimes and Arms Deal Corruption
That Mbeki, in his resignation address to the nation should deny to the
entire world that he had interfered in state institutions defies belief.
It is also ironic, considering that abuse of state institutions and
parliament was the hallmark of his presidency. Of the many betrayals and
crimes committed by his government, those bearing his personal stamp --
HIV/Aids denialism and the arms deal corruption -- stand out as the
worst. In providing the material basis for the decline in support for
and dividing the ANC, they are second in importance only to the
government’s neo-liberal capitalist policies, of which he was the
principal champion.

As the Treatment Action Campaign’s Zackie Achmat points out (Mail and
Guardian 26/09- 02/10/09), in support of his HIV/Aids denialist views
Mbeki systematically emasculated constitutionally independent
institutions for his own ends and to feed his prejudices. These included
the Human Rights Commission, the Commission on Gender Equality, the
Medical Research Council, the Medicines Control Council which were
ordered, amongst others, to fast-track the registration of a so-called
HIV/Aids drug that turned out to be an industrial solvent and through
which he deliberately delayed the approval of the drug Nevirapine which
had been proven to reduce the risk of mother-to-child transmission by
more than 50%.

Using Statistics SA figures, Achmat calculates that during Mbeki’s rule
there were more than 1,5 million deaths in the 0-49 age group and more
than 2 million new infections. Chris McGreal (The Guardian 23/09/08)
reports that the “Anglican archbishop of Cape Town, Njongunkulu
Ndungane, described the government’s Aids policies as “as serious a
crime against humanity as apartheid. One of the country’s leading Aids
researchers, formerly one of Mbeki confidants (and supporter of his
neo-liberal ideas, University of Kwa Zulu Natal Vice Chancellor)
Malegapuru Makgoba, said the government’s inaction was tantamount to
genocide. School children called Mbeki ‘Comrade Undertaker’”.

He censored the first report of the Auditor General into the arms deal
which had found irregularities pointing to corruption. To protect his
cronies, he deleted the report’s references to the role of MPs and the
cabinet. He subverted the Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Public
Accounts (Scopa), by altering its recommendations for a multi-agency
investigation and ordering the exclusion of the Heath Unit -- the only
one with legal powers of sub-poena. When the ANC delegates in Scopa,
Andrew Feinstein and Barbara Hogan, resisted this subversion, they were
forced out. Feinstein resigned from the ANC in protest.

Mbeki altered the terms of reference of a commission of inquiry into
allegations that the former NPA head, Bulelani Ngcuka had been a spy for
the apartheid regime as alleged by leading ANC and SACP figure Mac
Maharaj. The effect of the alterations was to prevent access to the
apartheid regime’s intelligence files to which he alone had access as
president. To add insult to injury, he appointed Bulelani Ngcuka’s wife
as his new deputy president.

It cannot be ruled out that the NPA’s appeal will succeed. But Zuma has
already filed papers opposing both the NPA and Mbeki’s appeal. In
addition Zuma will in all likelihood proceed with an application for a
permanent stay of prosecution towards the end of the year. Whatever the
outcome of the NPA/Mbeki appeals, against the background of the
political fall-out from the Nicholson judgment, the outcome would indeed
be “irrelevant” in so far as Mbeki’s political career is concerned.
Nicholson’s comments about his interference in state institutions stand
regardless – like the mark of Cain, an indelible stain on his
reputation. More importantly it would merely inflame the tensions within
the ANC further hastening its break up.

Decisive turning point
Zuma’s path to power has now effectively been cleared. Any further legal
action by either side will not be concluded before at least 2010 – well
beyond April 2009, the date for the next election. However, Zuma would
be well advised to heed the words of the Xhosa expression: be careful
what you wish for, for you may just get it.

As the DSM forewarned in the December 2007- February 2008 edition of
Izwi La Basebenzi “The divisions in the oldest liberation movement on
the African continent and its most powerful ruling party have become
unbridgeable. At the end of this road lies the eventual break-up of the
ANC.” Events of the last week have confirmed this prognosis perhaps
sooner than we may have anticipated. They represent a decisive turning
point for the ANC, its Alliance partners and the working class.

ANC Imploding
The Polokwane divisions have since been reproduced in every ANC
structure across the country. The ANC Youth League’s conference was a
disgrace and had to be postponed amidst chaotic scenes including the
hurling of urine-filled bottles and the baring of bottoms by unruly
drunken delegates. Current president Julius Malema was opposed by 7 out
of the 9 provinces and was installed, only after the intervention of the
leadership of the mother body. Malema’s victory and the clean sweep for
the pro-Zuma faction on the executive, however, merely entrenched the
divisions.

Two provincial premiers seen as Mbeki supporters, the Western Cape’s
Ebrahim Rasool and the Eastern Cape’s Nosimo Balindlela have been
removed from office, their ousting overseen by head office at Luthuli
House as the pro-Zuma leadership sought to demonstrate that the centre
of power had shifted decisively from the country’s presidency at the
Unions Buildings to Luthuli House. They have been followed out of office
by Gauteng premier Mbhazima Shilowa, who has resigned in protest at the
manner in which Mbeki was deposed..

Amongst the remaining premiers, the Free State’s and Limpopo’s remain in
office at the (dis)pleasure of the Zuma faction. The pro-Mbeki Limpopo
premier Moloto has had his power to appoint MECs effectively revoked
following the election of rival Cassel Mathale as provincial ANC
chairperson.

The faction fighting has degenerated into physical confrontation
involving the disruption of conferences, theft of membership records,
kidnapping and hostage-taking. In the same week as Mbeki was being
deposed, the ANC Western Cape held two rival provincial congresses. 500
ANC members representing 82 of the 205 (42%) branches excluded from the
pro-Zuma conference met separately in Langa. Over 700 ANC members
defected to the United Democratic Movement led by Bantu Holomisa, a
former bantustan leader expelled from the ANC for exposing the ANC’s
acceptance of a bribe from Sol Kerzner, owner of the notorious Sun City
gambling resort. The ANC’s Western Cape Dullar Omar region has been
dissolved.

In the run-up to the ANC Western Cape conference, provincial secretary
Mncebisi Skwatsha and leader of the dominant pro-Zuma faction narrowly
escaped death after being stabbed in the neck. In the same week three
members of the Eastern Cape ANC suffered gun shot wounds following
clashes at a meeting in Lusikisiki. The North West Provincial congress
had to take place under the protection of a police helicopter hovering
over the venue. At least five lives have been lost in three different
provinces so far.

These events, taking place as Kgalema Motlanthe was being sworn in as
president, constitute a political weather forecast for the list
conferences to be held to draw up the provincial and national
parliamentary candidate lists for next year’s elections.

ANC split spills into Cosatu and SACP
Inevitably the ANC’s factional divisions have spilled over into the SACP
and Cosatu. The SACP’s former national treasurer, Philip Dexter, has
resigned from the party following an investigation that cleared general
secretary Blade Ndzimande of allegations that he had pocketed a R500 000
donation by a BEE (black economic empowerment) businessman currently
facing police investigation for fraud.

Dexter, himself a product of the SACP’S graduate school for the
subversion of Marxism, has condemned the party as Stalinist and
departing from the principles of socialism. In turn he has been
denounced as a traitor. The former Cosatu president and SACP politburo
member, Willie Madisha, has been expelled from the SACP after testifying
that he had handed over the donation to Ndzimande in black plastic bags
ferried to the rendezvous point in the boot of his car. A number of SACP
leaders, branches and districts, including former Young Communist League
leader, have been suspended for opposing the party’s support for Zuma.

Mimicking the SACP, the Cosatu leadership has dismissed Madisha as
president for being nominated for the ANC NEC on the Mbeki faction’s
list in defiance of Cosatu’s support for the Zuma faction. Madisha’s own
union, the South African Democratic Teachers Union (Sadtu) has followed
suit. Emboldened by the Polokwane victory, the Cosatu leadership is now
training its witch hunters’ gun sights on National Union of Metal
Workers Union of SA (Numsa) general secretary, Silumko Nodwangu as well
as Chemical Paper Wood and Allied Workers Union (Ceppawu) leaders for
accepting nomination by the Mbeki faction at Polokwane.

Zuma faction’s ascendancy no shift to the left
Despite the vitriolic denunciations and the animosity between the Zuma
and Mbeki factions, theirs is no clash of competing ideologies.
Ideologically, Mbeki, Zuma and their followers, including,
unfortunately, the SACP and the Cosatu leaders are, in the final
analysis, ideological peas-in-a-pod – you cannot tell them apart.

There is no record of Zuma ever opposing the neo-liberal Growth
Employment and Redistribution (Gear) policies associated with Thabo
Mbeki, Finance Minister Trevor Manuel and Reserve Bank Governor Mboweni,
nor of Gear’s off shoots – privatisation, commercialisation of public
services, limits in social expenditure and budget cuts, electricity and
water cut offs and evictions. He never spoke out against Mbeki’s
HIV/Aids denialism and its genocidal consequences. He actively supported
the enrichment of the black elite through black economic empowerment. It
may be true that the letter that led to the exclusion of the Heath Unit
from the investigation into the arms deal corruption probe was written
by Mbeki. But Mbeki did not hold a gun to Zuma’s head forcing him to
sign it.

Like Mbeki, Zuma is committed to the preservation of capitalism. No less
than Mbeki, he is a servant of the predominantly white capitalist class
in SA and their imperialist masters. They have a shared belief in the
idea that the emancipation of black people lies in being assimilated
into the capitalist system – a tiny minority in the role of mining
tycoon Patrice Motsepe-style capitalist baas-boys – the majority as
slaves enjoying the pleasures of non-racial exploitation. His
shamelessly oppressive and backward positions on gender issues are no
more than an expression of his position on the fundamental class
conflicts and the gender questions that capitalist society is not only
incapable of solving, but needs to preserve to perpetuate the economic
dictatorship the of the parasitic capitalist minority.

The ANC’s policies, whether in the form of the social democratic
Reconstruction and Development Programme abandoned two years after the
ANC’s election in 1994, or the neo-liberal Gear that replaced it in
1996, has been consistently capitalist. The ANC is a political party
whose historic mission, in the words Mandela used in 1956 following the
adoption of the Freedom Charter, is “to create the conditions for the
rise of a prosperous non-European bourgeoisie”, that is, a rich black
capitalist class. Black economic empowerment is no more than the modern
expression of the aims of the Freedom Charter as understood by the black
middle class that formed the ANC in 1912. Their aim was not to overthrow
capitalism, but to become part of the bourgeoisie.

The dominant political issues may be the struggle for power between the
factions. But of far greater importance and the real reason for the
conflict within the ANC is the conflict between the classes. Having
placed itself at the service of capital, it is inevitable that the ANC
will come into conflict with the working class. The ANC’s capitalist
policies have had a devastating impact on the working class with whose
support it came to power.

It will be fifteen years since the ANC came to power when the next
elections take place. Yet for the overwhelming majority life is no
better than under apartheid. Over a thousand people are dying everyday
from HIV/Aids. Mass unemployment, poverty, disease, exclusion from
education and housing blight the lives of the working class majority.
Whilst 40% have no jobs, the security of those in employment is
increasingly undermined through casualisation, the use of labour
brokers, outsourcing and contracting. Despite this reality, the
capitalist class complains bitterly and incessantly that wages are too
high and that it is too difficult to fire workers.

Although the idea that the country’s economic life depends on capitalist
foreign investors and that domestic policy should be adapted to their
dictates is associated with Mbeki, the entire leadership shares this
belief. This is why both Finance Minister Trevor Manuel and Reserve Bank
Governor Tito Mboweni, the main targets of the criticism of Cosatu and
the SACP, have been retained in their posts by the Zuma leadership
despite indicating that they wished to resign.

It is the reason that Zuma has visited the major Western capitals and
institutions like Merrill Lynch and Citigroup -- to assure them there
would be no major change in economic policy. This was also the centre
piece of the message of the new president, Kgalema Motlanthe in his
acceptance speech and inaugural address to the nation. It is a position
consistent with that put forward by ANC general secretary Gwede Mantashe
in the post-Polokwane period that there would some tweaking here and
there, but no major policy shift.

Will a Zuma government deliver for the working class?
The continuation of the same policies is guaranteed to bring the Zuma
government into collision with the working class. The praise being
heaped on Mbeki for presiding over the longest boom in SA history,
exaggerates his role and that of the other “MT” heads Finance Minister,
Trevor Manuel and Reserve Bank Governor Tito Mboweni credited with
crafting the policies that allegedly led to the boom.

It also ignores the reality that the boom benefited only a tiny
minority, widened the gap between rich and poor, and was brought to an
end by the actions of the Reserve Bank itself. Like a doctor treating a
patient suffering from shortness of breadth with prescribing
strangulation, the increased interest rates have brought the boom to a
shuddering halt. Combined with high fuel and food prices, the high
interest rates are impoverishing not only the working class but also
draining the newly acquired wealth of the black middle class as house
and car repossessions escalate.

It was in any case not the export-led boom generally regarded by
bourgeois economists as sustainable, but a consumer boom that has led to
a deficit on the trade account of the balance of payments equivalent to
8,1% of gross domestic product – one of the highest in the world. The
deficit has been funded by an inflow of capital. But it is well know
that this is “hot money” – investments in shares and bonds and not
job-creating foreign direct investment. This type of parasitic capital
can flow out of the country as quickly as it has come in.

Zuma will be coming to power against the background of the worst
economic crisis faced by world capitalism since the Great Depression of
1929 – 1933. With the US and Britain in the front row, the major
capitalist economies are facing the prospect of the collapse of the
financial system, mass unemployment and a prolonged recession. The idea
that SA is immune from the effects of the world economic crisis is a
cruel illusion. Already foreign investors, terrified by the world
banking crisis, are taking their money out of emerging markets which are
considered riskier than those in the advanced capitalist countries. The
Star Business Report (29/09/08) revealed that non-residents’ net
outflows from local bonds and equities had more than doubled for the
month of September on Friday alone.

To prevent a massive outflow, the Reserve Bank would have to further
raise interest rate to avoid a collapse of the Rand resulting in more
homes, cars and furniture being repossessed as people find themselves
unable to cope with the increased repayments. The idea that the period
of high interest rates is over, is misleading.

No serious alternative economic polices from Cosatu and SACP
The Cosatu and SACP leadership has threatened that if Zuma does not
deliver, he will also be held to account. Ahead of next month’s
Tripartite Alliance economic summit they are making radical noises about
a complete “overhaul” of economic policy, including the establishment of
an economic planning ministry, the re-nationalisation of Sasol and
possibly Mittal Steel. Complaining that the devil is committing sin,
they bewail the evils of capitalism and denouncing the pressure monopoly
capital is exerting on the government. As they desperately try to save
the capitalist system, even the neo-liberal Bush administration has gone
further than these pitiful SACP/Cosatu proposals by carrying out through
the biggest nationalisations in US history.

Mantashe is simultaneously the secretary general of the ANC -- a party
committed to the preservation of capitalism, and the chairperson of the
SACP – a party claiming to be dedicated to the overthrow of capitalism.
In practice the SACP’s central committee members have played a leading
role in the implementation of Gear in Mbeki’s cabinet. Even though it is
now fashionable to denounce Gear, essentially the policies it produced
are still in place. For the SACP/Cosatu leadership socialism is still
not on the agenda. This is why the SACP is not campaigning for the
abolition of capitalism and insists on subordinating itself to the
capitalist ANC.

For a mass workers party on a socialist programme
The need for a mass working class alternative has never been greater.
Although the ANC increased its majority in parliament to more than 70%
in the 2004 elections, it was on the basis of a lower voter turnout. 12
million people were either not registered or did not vote in the last
election. With 11 million votes for the ANC, it means that there are
more people who did not vote at all than voted for the ANC. Its 70%
parliamentary majority amounts to only 38% of the electorate.

In a survey conducted by Naledi in September, 1998, six months before
Mbeki became president, 30% of Cosatu members indicated they would
support Cosatu forming a workers party and standing in the elections.
With the fracturing of the ANC, that figure is probably higher now as
the desire for an alternative intensifies. The DSM calls upon the Cosatu
rank-and-file to take the federation out of the Tripartite Alliance if
it is to preserve its unity and fulfill its potential as the most
powerful force in society.

Zuma may have a clear majority in the ANC, but, given the corruption
charges, the remarks he made about showering after sex to avoid
contracting HIV, the repulsive character of his leading supporters like
ANC Youth League president Julius Malema, Zuma has less support within
the electorate.

The developing economic crisis will not only lead to the break-up of the
ANC. It will also strain relations within the Tripartite Alliance to
breaking point. Our warning that Cosatu’s insistence on remaining within
the Tripartite Alliance will divide the federation is unfortunately
being borne out. The dismissal of Willie Madisha as Cosatu president and
the planned disciplinary action against Numsa’s Silumko Nodwangu
signifies the complete surrender of Cosatu’s class independence and its
reduction to a mere political appendage of the pro-Zuma factions of the
SACP and the ANC.

On the weekend that Kgalema Motlanthe was sworn is as president, the DSM
and a number of small left organizations agreed in principle to form a
socialist electoral front. It was initiated by the Operation Khanyisa
Movement, the name under which the Soweto Electricity Crisis Committee,
one of the Anti-Privatisation Forum’s most prominent affiliates, is
registered with the Independent Electoral Commission. Over the next few
months it will start campaigning, appealing to communities like those in
Khutsong, Matatiele and Moutse all of whom rebelled against their
relocation to other provinces through unilateral boundary changes. The
front will appeal to trade unions, social movements and youth
organizations to contribute towards laying the basis for the development
of a mass workers party on a socialist programme.
www.socialistsouthafrica.co.za