[DEBATE] : Taliban's fruitless dream

[Riaz K Tayob]

Taliban's fruitless dream
ISMAIL SAMEEM/REUTERS
Under the watchful eye of an Afghan army gunner, families fleeing 
villages in the Arghandab district of Kandahar are searched June 17, 2008.
Militants are desperate to seize Kandahar city, but fighting in the open 
a recipe for their defeat
Jun 18, 2008 04:30 AM
Rosie DiManno

COLUMNIST

They covet Kandahar city.

Can taste that succulent prize, hanging like a fat pomegranate within 
smash-and-grab distance.

More than Kabul, the Taliban have pined these past six-and-a-half years 
for the capital of Kandahar province – at one time, capital of 
Afghanistan – a ramshackle metropolis that is their spiritual home, the 
still fiercely beating heart of an insurgency that won't stay dead.

But the chances of Kandahar city falling are just about zero.

Even if it means transferring American troops by the battalion-load from 
eastern Afghanistan, or shifting some 2,400 Marines only recently landed 
as reinforcement cavalry in neighbouring Helmand, the city will not be 
allowed to pass from coalition-supported government control.

Some 700 extra Afghan troops were flown into Kandahar Airfield yesterday 
from Kabul.

For all the ruckus the Taliban have caused in the past six days, they 
are no more tactically close to seizing Kandahar than they were a month 
ago, or a year ago – and every year, since 2006, they've made the same 
boast: This year, Kandahar city.

Yet the insurgents – now allegedly ensconced in villages only 15 
kilometres northwest of Afghanistan's second-largest city, on the 
opposite side of the Arghandab River – certainly appear to be wagging 
the dog.

How Afghan and NATO troops respond to this threat will be the true 
measure of the Taliban offensive's success; may, indeed, be the whole 
strategic point.

NATO cannot let the Taliban set the military agenda by drawing scarce 
troops into guerrilla-friendly terrain and leaving a vacuum that can be 
exploited elsewhere by outflanking defensive positions.

Nor can NATO use its overwhelming military might with air strikes – 
ineffective when the enemy is spread in small pockets over a broad area 
– that would likely kill a large number of civilians, thereby further 
antagonizing the local population. "The best counter-insurgency practice 
means taking the population in villages, in communities, as your centre 
of gravity," a diplomatic source told the Toronto Star earlier.

"We can't let the Taliban distract us from that goal. And we know they 
try to draw international troops into clashes where civilian casualties 
are likely, where we use air power and fire power."

In an interview with the Star from Kabul, International Security 
Assistance Force spokesperson Brig.-Gen. Carlo Branco said he credits 
the insurgents with mounting an effective propaganda campaign the last 
few days, as the Taliban exploits Friday night's brazen breakout at 
Sarposa prison in Kandahar city.

But he said there was no confirmation of reports of the Taliban planting 
mines and blowing up bridges in the Arghandab district.

NATO patrols have been "moving freely" without resistance, he said.

Branco said no air strikes had been called in, either, because no 
targets had been identified to bomb. He also denied any mass movement 
out of the region by civilians. And, contrary to some reports, ISAF 
hasn't been urging villagers to evacuate.

One local tribal elder reported that the Taliban had taken control of 18 
villages northwest of the Arghandab River and had started digging 
trenches for combat cover.

Certainly, the Taliban's ubiquitous spokespeople have been saying quite 
a lot, claiming 450 Taliban were among the fugitives who escaped from 
Sarposa and that nearly all have joined up with Taliban units to engage 
anew in jihad.

Qari Yousaf Ahmadi, in an interview with The Canadian Press, claimed 500 
fighters have assembled in Arghandab, preparing for an operation called 
"IBRAT," which stands for "Learn a lesson from past deeds and doings."

In a separate interview with Associated Press, Taliban commander Mullah 
Ahmeddulah said about 400 fighters had moved into the Arghandab from 
Khakrez, a district just north of the valley, and these forces included 
Sarposa fugitives.

"They told us: `We want to fight until the death.'

"We've occupied most of the area and it's a good place for fighting. Now 
we are waiting for the NATO and Afghan forces."

If nothing else, the increasingly sophisticated insurgency appears to 
have learned a great deal from "past deeds and doings."

Operation Medusa, in the summer of '06, cost the insurgents dearly when 
they were obliterated by artillery and air power after entrenching 
themselves in a swath of terrain around the town of Pashmul. NATO 
estimated upwards of 1,000 Taliban fighters killed in that operation.

Although insurgents have infiltrated – rather than seized – villages in 
the Arghandab valley before, as recently as a year ago, they've always 
been repelled by ISAF and Afghan troops rumbling to the rescue.

The Taliban's other major – and eventually thwarted – incursion was last 
year in Musa Qala, which insurgents occupied after British troops were 
forced to retreat, turning the Helmand town into a propaganda showpiece, 
holding military parades and executing accused collaborators.

It required a major show of force by NATO in December to take back the 
town and the district, putting the lie to Taliban claims that they 
possessed artillery pieces and anti-aircraft guns.

The Taliban prepared for this robust challenge to ISAF and Afghan 
forces, it's believed, by ambushing and killing key allies of the 
central government in recent months – tribal elders and district 
commanders who had helped keep restive Kandahar in check.

Clearly, they do have long-term plans and strategies. From Arghandab, 
they also have a clear path to Kandahar city, across flat plains.

But that would mean coming out into the open. And getting crushed.
Columnist Rosie DiManno has returned last week from a one-month 
assignment in Afghanistan.


http://www.thestar.com/article/445126