[DEBATE] : Calland on ANC developments

[Russell Grinker]

RICHARD CALLAND


Survivor: African National Congress


Richard Calland: CONTRETEMPS


M&G 15 Jan 2008 23:59


There is more than a touch of Ronald Reagan -- or even, dare one say it,
George W Bush -- in Jacob Zuma. Apparently happily unencumbered by the need
to demonstrate a towering intellectual faculty, he is an archetypal
instinctive politician -- streetwise, savvy and not to be underestimated. As
his Polokwane victory speech showed, Zuma knows how to keep it simple while
transmitting all the key messages that need to be heard. In sharp contrast
to Thabo Mbeki's speech opening the ANC national conference -- an obscure
and rambling effort that utterly missed the moment and underlined the extent
to which he had become disconnected from his own organisation -- Zuma's
illustrated in one stroke all his political strengths. While the speech
lacked finesse or rhetorical flourish, the straightforward themes of
unification, stability and change were exactly what Zuma's supporters and
the markets wanted to hear. Quite how long he will be able to sustain this
delicate balance will be the fundamental question if and when he becomes
head of state. In the meantime, his greatest political strength is simply
this: he is not Thabo Mbeki. On the road to Polokwane, Zuma attracted a
notably diverse grab-bag of political allies, united in little but their
profound dislike of the incumbent. Zuma is a beneficiary of this; he may be
a symbol of change, but he is not the reason for change. How extensive is
the changing of the guard, and to what end? Senior ANC people have
previously taken issue with the idea that two ANCs have emerged: one in
government, the other on the outside. But those who complained tended to be
people in government. And they would say that, wouldn't they? There is
certainly a more obvious division now. The number of Cabinet ministers in
the full national executive committee has been cut from 19 to 11. Those who
managed to negotiate this first defining episode of Survivor: African
National Congress have been seriously weakened. That the ANC's broad
political church has become even broader in recent years is not necessarily
a good thing, as it has gathered more waifs and strays, to say nothing of
opportunists and crooks, while expansion has encouraged incoherence. In
short, there has been a political degeneration of the ANC. Reversing this
trend will be the central task of the new leadership, particularly the six
top officials. The national chairperson, Baleka Mbete, faces an enormous
challenge; she will have to succeed where Mosiuoa Lekota failed. But there
is some room for optimism in the senior collective. Deputy secretary general
Thandi Modise, for example, is an open, confident person who believes in
Parliament and in parliamentary oversight. Or at least she did when she was
chairperson of the defence committee. Interestingly, while the election
articulated a potent rejection of Mbeki's leadership style, and the neurosis
and paranoia of his exile traditions of secrecy and centralist control, the
exiles themselves have not been banished. If anything, exiles now hold a
greater number of the top jobs in the party. What next? The struggle for
executive power is far from over, and it may yet get nastier before things
can get better. There are deep fault lines within the new NEC. Expect Mbeki,
like a surgeon, to gradually prise them open. Some new NEC members are sure
to lead a visceral charge against certain democratic institutions. It will
not be pretty. As this happens, can the new-look ANC establish the sense of
a collective leadership that was lost during the Mbeki years? On this the
ANC electoral college spoke clearly. It put five wily old troopers at the
top of the NEC: Winnie Mandela, Jeff Radebe, Zola Skweyiya, Pallo Jordan and
Jeremy Cronin. Applying the main lesson of Mbeki's decisive defeat, are they
strong enough to ensure that the next occupant of the Union Buildings does
not disconnect with the party and its alliance partners? Which brings us
back to Reagan and Bush. Front men for powerful vested interests and knowing
their limitations, they relied heavily on their advisers. Similarly, the
identity and pedigree of Zuma's kitchen Cabinet is of critical importance.
His association with the security establishment has been noted elsewhere,
and there are myriad opportunists hoping to make a fast buck out of a Jacob
Zuma regime. So the job of the new leadership collective -- if that is what
it turns out to be -- is to ensure that Zuma's victory is not about change
for change's sake. Continuity has its place too. Zuma's dodgier cronies need
to be kept at bay, and the key institutions of constitutional democracy,
such as Parliament, given a radical injection of fresh energy and ideas.
Power needs to be spread, not channelled through any one man.