[DEBATE] : Zuma's vision

[Sean Jacobs]

My take on Zuma in the context of reassuring-for-capital coverage NY  
Times (Mark Gevisser esp), WSJ, and W Post coverage here.  I wrote it,  
and it was published, before he made his speech  --- Sean

Zuma's vision
Sean Jacobs

December 20, 2007

http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/sean_jacobs/2007/12/ 
zumas_vision.html

Now that the ethically challenged Jacob Zuma has soundly defeated Thabo  
Mbeki to become president of South Africa's ruling party, the next  
questions are whether he'll become the country's next democratic  
president and if he does, what kind of policies can South Africans and  
the world expect from him?

The answer to the first hinges on whether he can keep a fractious ANC  
together and stay out of jail. Zuma may not be a unifier, but he has  
the support of two crucial ANC constituencies: the trade unions and  
leftist elements. As for staying out of jail, his legal team is heading  
off a court date for long-delayed corruption charges, and it looks as  
if he may succeed in portraying the corruption charges as an Mbeki-led  
plot.

As for how he'll govern, much has been said already about his style.  
That he is the opposite of Mbeki: more consultation with the ANC's  
allies (or appearance of consultation), less aloof, more charismatic.

However, there is less surety as to what he'll do the about the  
fundamental issues in South Africa: the paradox of 5% average economic  
growth accompanied by 30-40% unemployment; the fact that South Africa  
remains the most unequal society in the world, and that while the black  
middle class now surpasses the white in numerical terms, black people  
comprise the overwhelming majority of the poor; and Aids sufferers.  
Also unclear is how Zuma may reimagine South Africa's role as a  
regional hegemony.

Unfortunately we won't learn a lot from Zuma himself. He does not write  
a lot or give memorable speeches like Mbeki, whose weekly online Letter  
from the President column was - until Zuma's election - a must-read for  
South Africa's political and media elites. He blames South Africa's  
media for his legal troubles, so rarely gives interviews.

Zuma is often called a populist, and much is made of his association  
with key trade union leaders and leftists. If his public utterances  
were taken at face value, however, Zuma will not radically overhaul  
economic policy in a redistributive direction. As he recently told the  
BBC, "The ANC is going to move as it moves and change its leadership as  
the time comes, but keeping its direction - so nothing is going to  
change." He has reportedly offered even more specific assurances in  
private to key South African and international business figures.

Zuma certainly has problematic sexual politics: on trial for the rape  
of an HIV positive family friend (he was acquitted), he claimed to have  
showered after sex to prevent possible infection. At the same time, he  
has since taken an Aids test, something Mbeki in his denialism refused  
to do. So Zuma is unlikely to indulge in quack Aids theories and will  
probably fire the health minister, Manto Tshabalala-Msimang, who has  
promoted garlic and beetroot as Aids remedies.

South Africa has been criticised for its quiet diplomacy towards the  
crises in neighbouring Zimbabwe and the despotism of its leader, Robert  
Mugabe. Zuma told two German journalists last year, if "If the people  
love him ... how can we condemn him?" About China's growing economic  
influence on the continent: "There is not a single country in the world  
that is not interested in doing business with China at the moment,  
including Germany. And no one is seriously concerned about human  
rights. But Africans are criticised for wanting to do business with  
China."

So even though many were alarmed to hear him singing Bring Me My  
Machine Gun in Zulu, a Zuma presidency may indicate more a change in  
style than in substance. Over the next few days Zuma and those in his  
circle will probably fill in more of the blanks about his vision for  
South Africa. For now, we can content ourselves with knowing he can  
carry a tune.

--------------------------------------------
Sean Jacobs
Blogging as Leo Africanus at http://theleoafricanus.blogspot.com
On Dec 20, 2007, at 11:51 PM, debate-request at lists.kabissa.org wrote: